Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
SPC Products Overview
 Forecast Discussion

000 ACUS01 KWNS 221948 SWODY1 SPC AC 221947 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of mainly hail and damaging winds are possible from southeast New Mexico into parts of west Texas and southwest Oklahoma late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of southern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois through the evening hours. ...IA/WI/IL... Convection has begun to increase in intensity across eastern IA where strong heating and modest increases in boundary layer moisture has resulted in weak destabilization. An 18z RAOB from DVN indicated some weak capping around 850mb but this should be overcome by increased ascent spreading over the tri-state region currently. Steep midlevel lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing will support a few strong to severe storms capable of marginal hail and some locally damaging wind gusts. No changes have been made to the previous outlook. For more info, see recently issued MCD 419. ...NM/TX/OK... Stronger ascent associated with southeastward progressing upper low over the lower CO Valley will continue to spread northeast into the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity late this afternoon into this evening. Towering CU over higher terrain in NM and northern Mexico indicate environment is becoming more favorable for thunderstorm development in the next few hours. A corridor of storms from southeast NM into southwest OK ahead of a surface front still appears favorable for isolated to scattered severe storms through this evening. Large hail and damaging wind will be the main concerns with this threat. Ongoing forecast remains on track and no changes have been made. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019/ ...Synopsis... A couple of mid-level waves will provide impetus for potential severe weather later today - one currently centered over western Iowa that will migrate northeastward toward Lower Michigan and another centered over the Lower Colorado River Valley that will migrate southeastward into northwestern Mexico. At the surface, a low over northeastern Iowa will migrate eastward across southern Wisconsin and into northern Lower Michigan today - generally along a WSW-ENE oriented surface warm front. A cold front will extend south-southwest from this low across Missouri and Oklahoma, ultimately transitioning into a stationary boundary across the Texas South Plains and vicinity. Lee surface troughing will extend from south-central New Mexico into far west Texas throughout the forecast period. ...Eastern New Mexico eastward through central Oklahoma... Morning satellite/observations indicate limited solar insolation beneath a widespread cirrus shield. However, gradual low-level moistening was occurring across portions of southeastern NM and far west Texas near the surface trough axis. Surface flow was beginning to take on a more easterly component north of the front across the Texas South Plains, and these trends should continue throughout the day. Later today, a shortwave trough currently over northern Mexico will eject northeastward toward west Texas. Ascent associated with that feature, lift along the stationary front, and low-level upslope will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorm development. Though low-level wind fields should be weak, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep shear will result in organized storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms should grow upscale into one or two linear complexes and forward-propagate eastward along/near the surface boundary especially within the Slight Risk area. A few storms will also develop into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and pose a hail risk. The threat should mostly be diurnally driven, although some hail/wind risk may persist overnight given forecast strengthening of a low-level jet across west Texas. ...Wisconsin, Illinois, and far eastern Iowa... Continued surface heating along and ahead of the surface low and mid-level wave will result in a few thunderstorms this afternoon that will spread eastward across the Marginal Risk area. Modest mid-level lapse rates and mid-50s F dewpoints will tend to limit buoyancy. However, the deepening low will foster slightly backed low-level flow later today, which may result in a few supercellular structures. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two are possible with this activity - especially with any updrafts that can favorably interact with the warm front over central Wisconsin. Later tonight, forcing associated with the amplifying mid-level wave may result in a very isolated damaging wind threat in northern Lower Michigan, although it is unclear if surface-based convective updrafts will persist across cold waters of Lake Michigan. $$