Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 0100Z Outlook
 Forecast Discussion

868 ACUS01 KWNS 240054 SWODY1 SPC AC 240053 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible late tonight across parts of northwest and central Texas, accompanied by a risk for severe hail. ...01Z Outlook Update... The risk for additional isolated thunderstorm activity across parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi is expected to continue becoming increasingly negligible this evening as the moist boundary layer stabilizes further with the loss of daytime heating. It does appear that widely scattered weak thunderstorm development may linger at least another couple of hours this evening near the surface front across parts of northern Mississippi and western Tennessee into the Kentucky Blue Grass region. There also may be enough instability to maintain weak thunderstorm development in the presence of weak lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau. Otherwise, the most substantive convective potential still appears likely to become focused across parts of central and northwest Texas late tonight. This is expected to occur as deep layer wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent begin to increase in response to a vigorous short wave trough pivoting east northeast of the Four Corners region (toward the central High Plains), and perhaps another more subtle impulse migrating eastward along the subtropical jet axis across the Texas Big Bend vicinity into south central Texas. This thunderstorm activity is expected to be rooted within a moistening southerly return flow, above cold surface-based air which remains entrenched across the southern Plains. The shallower southern edge of this air mass curves (roughly) from the Ark-La-Tex region through the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, and may not move much through daybreak. The stalled/southern edge of the deeper cold air lingers across the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas into southeastern Oklahoma. While the stable near surface air appears to result in negligible potential for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, it still appears that increasing shear within the convective layer, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates, will promote at least low probabilities for severe hail in stronger storms by 12Z Saturday. Severe hail probabilities have been adjusted some to account for latest model output and observational data. ..Kerr.. 02/24/2018 $$