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Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook
  
 Forecast Discussion

000 ACUS02 KWNS 200501 SWODY2 SPC AC 200500 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Great Basin and Arizona on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drift eastward across central CA into NV with a 35 kt midlevel speed max across the lower CO Valley. Cool temperatures aloft will support MUCAPE values in excess of 500 j/kg, with scattered showers and storms ongoing early in the day with areas of heating. The greatest concentration of storms will be from southern NV into northwest AZ. Here, weak but veering winds with height may support cellular activity, with small hail or locally gusty winds possible, though severe storms are not expected. Elsewhere, weak height falls will occur over southwest TX late Sunday night, increasing lift. Although precipitation will be on the increase, instability looks to be too weak to support thunderstorms. East of this area, high pressure will maintain dry conditions with offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Jewell.. 10/20/2018 $$