Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook 0830Z Probablistic 0830Z
Current Day 3 Outlook 0730z
Categorical Day3 0830Z Outlook
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 Forecast Discussion

562 ACUS03 KWNS 060730 SWODY3 SPC AC 060729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF MINNESOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest Wednesday. Greatest severe threat is currently forecast across eastern South Dakota and most of Minnesota. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin to period over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This shortwave is expected to mature into a closed cyclone over southern Saskatchewan by Wednesday afternoon. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the base of this cyclone, from the northern High Plains eastward/northeastward into southern Manitoba. This evolution will encourage the eastward/southeastward progression of a cold front from the eastern Dakotas into NE and the Upper Midwest. Dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to be in place ahead of the front, supporting strong instability. A largely unidirectional wind profile will temper vertical shear. Even so, the strength of the instability should still result in scattered severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threats. ...Elsewhere... Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated from GA through the Carolinas in the vicinity of a surface low and associated upper cyclone that is expected to move slowly over the region. Some enhancement of the low-level flow is possible along the eastern periphery of the system, but this is currently expected to be offshore. Resulting weak vertical shear over land will keep any severe threat low. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast as a result of pre-frontal confluence amid ample low-level moisture and modest buoyancy. Weak vertical shear should preclude organized severe thunderstorms across the majority of the region. The only exception is across New England where slightly stronger flow aloft attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave trough will increase vertical shear. Uncertain storm coverage that far north precludes any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2020 $$