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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado Hail Wind

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

  
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ACUS01 KWNS 290543
SWODY1
SPC AC 290541

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts and a conditional risk for a tornado may exist
Thursday from the Florida Panhandle into North Carolina and southern
Virginia in association with tropical cyclone Zeta.

...TC Zeta...

Remnants of TC Zeta are lifting quickly northeast across central AL
early this morning. Zeta will eject across the southern Appalachians
into VA by 18z, then off the Middle Atlantic Coast by early evening.
70s surface dew points have spread inland across most of GA and
coastal SC and this air mass will provide at least weak buoyancy
supporting convection within a strongly sheared environment. While
lightning will not be that common with this convection, deeper
updrafts should attain heights necessary for a few flashes. Forecast
soundings characteristically exhibit poor lapse rates, but very
moist profiles should contribute to low-topped supercells across the
risk area. Earlier thoughts regarding the overall severe threat
remain -- primarily the possibility for a few brief weak tornadoes,
and perhaps some gusty winds with the most organized convection.

..Darrow/Cook.. 10/29/2020

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