Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
SPC Products Overview
 Forecast Discussion

000 ACUS01 KWNS 120103 SWODY1 SPC AC 120101 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging wind gusts will remain possible this evening and overnight, mainly across parts of the northern Plains. ...Plains... Isolated to widely scattered convection has developed this evening along the length of a lee trough extending southward from a surface low over northeastern WY and across much of the High Plains. Most of this activity from NE to TX should continue to pose an isolated large hail and severe wind threat for another couple of hours this evening, before eventually weakening as convective inhibition increases. For more information on the near-term severe threat across parts of the central/southern High Plains, see Mesoscale Discussion 1468. Additional storms have formed across far eastern MT and western ND on the northwestern fringe of an instability axis. There remains some potential for this convection grow upscale into a small MCS and spread east-southeastward mainly across SD this evening and overnight along/south of a weak warm front. At least moderate instability will remain across this area owing to steep mid-level lapse rates (see 00Z UNR sounding) overlying rich low-level moisture. A southerly low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen tonight across the northern/central Plains, which may also help maintain storm intensity/longevity with eastward extent across SD through much of the period. Large hail will remain a possibility with ongoing storms, and severe/damaging winds may become the primary threat if storms grow upscale. ...Elsewhere... Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this evening and overnight across parts of southeastern OK into the ArkLaTex region as modestly enhanced shear associated with a mid-level vorticity maximum remains over these areas. Occasional strong to locally damaging winds may also occur for another hour or two across parts of the Northeast with ongoing convection before it weakens later this evening. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2020 $$