Northwest Arkansas Weather.com

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado Hail Wind

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

  
000
ACUS01 KWNS 200100
SWODY1
SPC AC 200058

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MN...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging gusts are expected late tonight across Iowa
and northern Minnesota.

...01Z Update...

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A thunderstorm or two is still possible across ND and northeast SD
as the front moves eastward tonight. Later tonight, increased storm
coverage is anticipated along the front as it moves through northern
MN. Moderate buoyancy and enhanced westerly flow aloft will result
in an environment supportive of strong, organized updrafts.
Potential for severe hail and strong wind gusts appears high enough
to merit an increase in wind/hail probabilities and a Slight Risk. 

...IA...
Severe thunderstorms are still expected to develop late tonight
amidst ample low-level moisture and a strong low-level jet. Large
hail (isolated over 2" in diameter) will be the primary hazard with
the initial development with the threat then shifting to strong wind
gusts as upscale growth occurs. Primary change over this area was to
pull the Slight Risk back farther west (to the MO River) to account
for a greater potential for storms farther west.

..Mosier.. 08/20/2019

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